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The problems make for difficult, but necessary reading. Brown goes beyond the latest headlines on the rapid shrinking of the polar ice caps to give compelling information and analysis on the rising number of failing states, world population trends, species loss, poverty, disease, illiteracy the loss of forests, global water shortages, deteriorating oil and food security, the idea of “tipping points” and much more. Once you’ve read these chapters, which are backed by reams of scientific research, it’s hard not to feel dismay.

But take heart. The second half of the book outlines solutions that, although not easy, are truly feasible. Brown makes a convincing case for a transition to a cleaner, more efficient economy that reflects the true costs of doing “business as usual” and restructures taxes and spending to solve multiple problems at once. The cost of saving civilization? Brown estimates it at $190 billion a year. Staggering? It could be accomplished by diverting one sixth of the global military budget. Impossible? Remember how our country mobilized in World War II.

After reading this book, I believe you will agree with me that this kind of mobilization is necessary. The stakes are as high as in World War II, in fact higher. The good news is that just as this mobilization resulted in an unprecedented high standard of living for our country and many others, so a 21st century mobilization could result in health and abundance for the billions of people and life forms on our planet – an alternative future that we have it in our power to create if we only have the will to do so.

This reading event is also sponsored by the Ojai Valley Library Friends and Foundation, the Ojai Library, and Local Hero Books. The reading period began on April 13th and continues through June 10th. There will be a discussion group on June 10th at the Ojai Library at 7:00pm.

The book is available at the Ojai Library for borrowing and at Local Hero bookstore for a discounted price of $15. A free ‘Ojai Reads’ bookmark is available at both locations. The book can also be downloaded for free at www.earthpolicy.org.

For current information and online discussion, visit www.ojaireads.com.

Just a few statistics from Plan B 3.0 – Mobilizing to Save Civilization

These are all from Section I: A Civilization in Trouble
And does not include any of the solutions proposed in Section II: The Response – Plan B

Transportation:
If we assume that in 2030 there are three cars for every four people in China, as there now are in the United States, China will have 1.1 billion cars. The world currently has 860 million cars. To provide the needed roads, highways, and parking lots, China would have to pave an area comparable to what it now plants in rice.

Hunger:
The number of people in developing countries who are hungry and malnourished, which declined from 960 million in 1970 to 800 million in 1996, has turned upward, reaching 830 million in 2003..

The penalties of being undernourished begin at birth. A U.N. report estimates that 20 million underweight infants are born each year to mothers who are also malnourished. The study indicates that these children suffer lasting effects in the form of “impaired immune systems, neurological damage, and retarded physical growth.”

Climate Change:
The area experiencing very dry conditions expanded from less than 15% of the earth’s total land area in the 1970s to roughly 30% by 2002. Researchers with the USDA’s Forest Service report that even a 1.6 Celsius rise in summer temperature could double the area of wildfires in the 11 western states.

A team of scientists from the National Snow and Ice Data Center and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which has compiled data on Arctic Ocean summer ice melting from 1953 to 2006, concluded that ice is melting much faster than climate models had predicted. They found that from 1979 to 2006 the summer sea ice shrinkage accelerated to 9.1% a decade. In 2007, Arctic sea ice shrank some 20% below the previous record set in 2005. This suggests that the sea could be ice-free well before 2050, the earliest date set by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 2007 report…One eighth of the world’s population (634 million people) live along coasts or below 10 meters above sea level.

Munich Re, a leading reinsurance company, has published a list of natural disasters with insured losses of $1 billion or more. During the 1980s there were 3 such events; during the 1990s, there were 26; and between 2000 and 2006 alone there were 26.

Deforestation:
Since 1990, the developing world has lost some 13 million hectares of forest a year. This loss each decade is an area roughly the size of Greece. At current rates of logging, the natural forests in Indonesia and Myanmar will be gone within a decade or so.

Soil Erosion and Desertification:
Ethiopia, a mountainous country with highly erodible soils on steeply sloping land, is losing close to 2 billion tons of topsoil a year, washed away by rain. This is one reason Ethiopia always seems to be on the verge of famine, never able to accumulate enough grain reserves to provide a meaningful measure of food security.

Desert expansion in sub-Saharan Africa is displacing millions of people. A 2006 U.N. conference on desertification in Tunisia projected that by 2020 up to 60 million people could migrate from sub-Saharan Africa to North Africa and Europe.

Species Loss:
Three quarters of oceanic fisheries…are being fished at or beyond their limits, and many are headed toward collapse.

12% of the world’s nearly 10,000 bird species, 20% of the world’s 5,416 mammal species, an 39% of fish species are currently vulnerable or in immediate danger of extinction.

Human Health:
Life expectancy in 38 AIDS-afflicted African countries has fallen to 45 years.

1.1 billion people lack access to safe water. Waterborne diseases claim more than 3 million lives each year.

In July, 2005 the Environmental Working Group, in collaboration with Commonweal, released an analysis of umbilical cord blood from 10 randomly selected newborns in U.S. hospitals. They found a total of 287 chemicals in these tests. The World Health Organization reports an estimated 3 million deaths worldwide each year from air pollutants – three times the number of traffic fatalities. In the United States, air pollution each year claims 70,000 lives, compared with the country’s 45,000 traffic deaths.

Global Security:
In 2004, the journal Foreign Policy, identified 7 countries as “failed states,” where governments are no longer in control and can no longer provide basic services such as education, health care, and food security. In 2005 this increased to 9 countries, and in 2006 it was 12 – nearly doubling in two years. Pakistan, a nuclear armed nation, is currently ranked number 12 of the top failing states. If the international community cannot effectively address the failing state phenomenon, the prospect of reaching other goals could also fade.